QB projections vs market reference
Frozen Week-4 equations, conditional on the named QBs starting. Not Week-5-informed forecasts.
| Player | Market | Frozen projection | Current reference line | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | Pass attempts | 30.69 | Unavailable | — |
| Sam Darnold | Completions | 19.47 | Unavailable | — |
| Sam Darnold | Pass yards | 233.31 | Unavailable | — |
| Bo Nix | Pass attempts | 34.79 | Unavailable | — |
| Bo Nix | Completions | 21.46 | Unavailable | — |
| Bo Nix | Pass yards | 213.61 | Unavailable | — |
Seattle rushing intelligence
Emanuel Wilson: first-three-drive carries in last four observed games: 0, 1, 2, 5; average 2.00. Observed full-game average: 17.75.
George Holani: early carries 0, 0, 0, 0; observed full-game average 4.50.
No verified Week-6 carries or rushing-yards projections or executable prices.
Denver rushing intelligence
J.K. Dobbins: first-three-drive carries: 4, 3, 0, 4; observed full-game average 14.00.
RJ Harvey: first-three-drive carries: 2, 1, 3, 0; observed full-game average 3.75.
Dobbins share: 57.9% of early designed runs versus 57.0% later in last four games. Low raw early carries ≠ disappearing role.
Team rushing attempts — forecast context
RUN-006L's last issued team rush forecast was for Week 5, not Seattle–Denver. These numbers are reference points to help judge scale, not a Week-6 head-to-head prediction. Team rushing attempts include QB rushing events; do not allocate them directly to RB carries.
| Team | Last issued opponent | Archived expected team rushes | Week-6 SEA–DEN forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | San Francisco (Week 5) | 27.01 | Not issued |
| Denver | LA Chargers (Week 5) | 25.79 | Not issued |
Frozen prior-16 team baseline averages: Seattle 29.00 rush attempts/game; Denver 25.69. These descriptive averages are not opponent-adjusted projections.
RUN-006L probability ladder — exact-opponent Week-6 issuance pending
The full frozen threshold ladder belongs here. 28+, 30+, 32+ and 34+ mean at least that many team rushing attempts; low thresholds mean 21 or fewer, 19 or fewer, 17 or fewer. The current page must not substitute the Week-5 opponent for Thursday.
| Team | 28+ attempts | 30+ attempts | 32+ attempts | 34+ attempts | ≤21 attempts | ≤19 attempts | ≤17 attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA vs DEN (W6) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| DEN vs SEA (W6) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
Archived Week-5 checks only: Seattle vs SF had 43.8% for 28+ and 35.1% for 30+; Denver vs LAC had 43.8% for 28+ and 32.6% for 30+. They are not Thursday's probabilities. Other thresholds are withheld until retrieved from the actual issued ladder, rather than inferred from these two values. RUN-006L is exploratory research, not a validated automatic bet signal.
Individual RB carries and rushing yards
Below are observed workload baselines beside the forecast/market columns. This separates useful facts from projections we have not issued. Rushing-yards projections cannot be calculated responsibly just by multiplying a back's last-game carry average by a guessed YPC.
| Back | Observed full-game carries avg. | Week-6 RB carries forecast | RUN-007 rushing yards forecast | Book line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson (SEA) | 17.75 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
| George Holani (SEA) | 4.50 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | 14.00 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | 3.75 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
| Tyler Badie (DEN) | 1.25 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
What our RUN-007 research contributes
The established research framework projects player rushing yards from team rush opportunity × player share × efficiency, with availability adjustment and chronological evidence. On its historical evaluation, the integrated version had 28.56 yards MAE; a direct linear benchmark was slightly better at 28.33. Neither figure proves a sportsbook edge, and neither is a current Week-6 player forecast.
To fill the blank Week-6 columns automatically: issue an exact-opponent RUN-006 team forecast, calculate designed RB opportunities and verified role/share, then apply the frozen RUN-007 yardage forecast. Display actual timestamped sportsbook lines and prices separately. No historical opponent probabilities are silently recycled.
RUN-034C rushing environment
Archived Week-5 profiles; NGS through Week 4, PBP through Week 3. Percentile is relative to the research comparison group, not a league rank or probability. Higher = better on each named axis: offense creates more favorable runs; defense makes running harder.
Quick reading guide: 0–19 = bottom fifth · 20–39 = below average · 40–59 = middle · 60–79 = above average · 80–100 = top fifth. These are broad descriptive bands, not official rankings or validated betting thresholds.
| Axis | SEA offense | DEN defense | DEN offense | SEA defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carry environment / difficulty | 50.00 (middle) | 100.00 (top fifth) | 59.38 (middle) | 53.13 (middle) |
| Avoid negatives / disruption | 18.75 (bottom fifth) | 34.38 (below avg.) | 70.31 (above avg.) | 98.44 (top fifth) |
| Explosives / suppression | 67.19 (above avg.) | 73.44 (above avg.) | 71.88 (above avg.) | 98.44 (top fifth) |
Seattle offense vs Denver defense
Seattle is around the middle in favorable carry environment, poor at avoiding negative rushes, but above average in creating explosive runs. Denver's 100th-percentile carry difficulty is a strong directional resistance signal, but its disruption score is below average.
Denver offense vs Seattle defense
Denver is above average in avoiding negative runs and producing explosives. Seattle is top fifth in both disruption and explosive suppression, so this is a difficult stylistic matchup despite its middle carry-difficulty rating.
Important: 98.44 percentile does not mean 98.44% of runs are stopped, and 100 does not mean no back can gain yards. These profiles are archived, not refreshed Week-6 ratings. RUN-035 did not establish improved player rushing-yard forecasts from these overlays.
Frozen team environment
Mixed cutoffs: opportunity through Week 3, scoring through Week 4.
| Prior-16 average | Seattle | Denver |
|---|---|---|
| Drives | 11.375 | 11.250 |
| Offensive plays | 59.94 | 62.75 |
| Pass attempts | 29.625 | 35.563 |
| Rush attempts | 29.000 | 25.688 |
| Neutral early-down run fraction | 53.3% | 49.3% |
| Points scored | 27.625 | 22.375 |
| Points allowed | 16.250 | 20.063 |
Football questions to investigate
Dobbins carries
Does Denver's changing play-calling lower total designed rushing opportunity, or does Dobbins retain ~57% share? Failure case for an Under: close script and normal late workload.
Emanuel Wilson usage
How much does Seattle's redistributed backfield and recent fumbling affect his leash? Failure case for an Over: reduced snaps, pass-heavy script, or alternate back usage.
Passing and total
Monitor Denver secondary health, Seattle's defensive injuries, short fields and explosive plays. Pressure alone does not justify passing-yards Unders.
What is missing for a usable price comparison?
Current player prop lines and odds · fully refreshed Week-6 QB/RB forecasts · exact-opponent Week-6 rushing ladder · confirmed late personnel · current weather.
Those gaps are displayed rather than guessed. The scanner still needs the automatic refresh-to-projection and reference-price integration.