New: reusable weekly intelligence dashboard
The new Week-N view reads dated QB and team-rushing forecast packets when their source checks pass. It supports choosing any scheduled game; it will show "not yet issued" until the first automated publication.
QB projections vs market reference
Frozen Week-4 equations, conditional on the named QBs starting. Not Week-5-informed forecasts.
| Player | Market | Frozen projection | Current reference line | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | Pass attempts | 30.69 | Unavailable | — |
| Sam Darnold | Completions | 19.47 | Unavailable | — |
| Sam Darnold | Pass yards | 233.31 | Unavailable | — |
| Bo Nix | Pass attempts | 34.79 | Unavailable | — |
| Bo Nix | Completions | 21.46 | Unavailable | — |
| Bo Nix | Pass yards | 213.61 | Unavailable | — |
Seattle rushing intelligence
Emanuel Wilson: first-three-drive carries in last four observed games: 0, 1, 2, 5; average 2.00. Observed full-game average: 17.75.
George Holani: early carries 0, 0, 0, 0; observed full-game average 4.50.
No verified Week-6 carries or rushing-yards projections or executable prices.
Denver rushing intelligence
J.K. Dobbins: first-three-drive carries: 4, 3, 0, 4; observed full-game average 14.00.
RJ Harvey: first-three-drive carries: 2, 1, 3, 0; observed full-game average 3.75.
Dobbins share: 57.9% of early designed runs versus 57.0% later in last four games. Low raw early carries ≠ disappearing role.
Team rushing attempts — Seattle vs Denver
RUN-006L Week-6 box-score reconstruction, provisional. These are newly calculated for this exact Thursday matchup, using the frozen 40% offensive last-eight + 20% opponent-allowed last-eight + 40% historical league baseline. NFLverse Week-5 event-by-event reconciliation remains pending; this is not a certified automated model issuance or sportsbook edge.
| Team | Expected rushes | Research status | Current team-rush market |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA vs DEN | 27.54 | Provisional Week-6 reconstruction | Unverified |
| DEN vs SEA | 25.34 | Provisional Week-6 reconstruction | Unverified |
RUN-006L threshold probabilities
Higher-tail probabilities mean reaching at least the named number. Lower-tail probabilities mean finishing with that many or fewer. Team non-kneel rushing attempts include QB scrambles; these cannot be multiplied directly by an RB called-rush share.
| Team | 28+ | 30+ | 32+ | 34+ | ≤21 | ≤19 | ≤17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 43.8% | 40.1% | 31.8% | 26.5% | 26.2% | 14.9% | 4.4% |
| Denver | 41.3% | 27.6% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 19.4% |
Sources and cutoff: 2025 and 2026 Weeks 1–4 nflverse play-by-play; Week-5 October 11 box-score rushing totals reconstructed as SEA 26 / SF 24 and DEN 29 / LAC 34; original frozen RUN-006L 2025 league priors. Week-5 event-level source not yet cross-checked for any kneels or rush-attempt coding differences. SF @ SEA box score · DEN @ LAC box score. This research remains EXPLORATORY; no demonstrated automatic betting edge.
Individual RB carries and rushing yards
Below are observed workload baselines beside the forecast/market columns. This separates useful facts from projections we have not issued. Rushing-yards projections cannot be calculated responsibly just by multiplying a back's last-game carry average by a guessed YPC.
| Back | Observed full-game carries avg. | Week-6 RB carries forecast | RUN-007 rushing yards forecast | Book line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson (SEA) | 17.75 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
| George Holani (SEA) | 4.50 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | 14.00 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | 3.75 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
| Tyler Badie (DEN) | 1.25 | Not issued | Not issued | Unavailable |
What our RUN-007 research contributes
The established research framework projects player rushing yards from team rush opportunity × player share × efficiency, with availability adjustment and chronological evidence. On its historical evaluation, the integrated version had 28.56 yards MAE; a direct linear benchmark was slightly better at 28.33. Neither figure proves a sportsbook edge, and neither is a current Week-6 player forecast.
To fill the blank Week-6 columns automatically: issue an exact-opponent RUN-006 team forecast, calculate designed RB opportunities and verified role/share, then apply the frozen RUN-007 yardage forecast. Display actual timestamped sportsbook lines and prices separately. No historical opponent probabilities are silently recycled.
RUN-034C rushing environment
Archived Week-5 profiles; NGS through Week 4, PBP through Week 3. Percentile is relative to the research comparison group, not a league rank or probability. Higher = better on each named axis: offense creates more favorable runs; defense makes running harder.
Quick reading guide: 0–19 = bottom fifth · 20–39 = below average · 40–59 = middle · 60–79 = above average · 80–100 = top fifth. These are broad descriptive bands, not official rankings or validated betting thresholds.
| Axis | SEA offense | DEN defense | DEN offense | SEA defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carry environment / difficulty | 50.00 (middle) | 100.00 (top fifth) | 59.38 (middle) | 53.13 (middle) |
| Avoid negatives / disruption | 18.75 (bottom fifth) | 34.38 (below avg.) | 70.31 (above avg.) | 98.44 (top fifth) |
| Explosives / suppression | 67.19 (above avg.) | 73.44 (above avg.) | 71.88 (above avg.) | 98.44 (top fifth) |
Seattle offense vs Denver defense
Seattle is around the middle in favorable carry environment, poor at avoiding negative rushes, but above average in creating explosive runs. Denver's 100th-percentile carry difficulty is a strong directional resistance signal, but its disruption score is below average.
Denver offense vs Seattle defense
Denver is above average in avoiding negative runs and producing explosives. Seattle is top fifth in both disruption and explosive suppression, so this is a difficult stylistic matchup despite its middle carry-difficulty rating.
Important: 98.44 percentile does not mean 98.44% of runs are stopped, and 100 does not mean no back can gain yards. These profiles are archived, not refreshed Week-6 ratings. RUN-035 did not establish improved player rushing-yard forecasts from these overlays.
Frozen team environment
Mixed cutoffs: opportunity through Week 3, scoring through Week 4.
| Prior-16 average | Seattle | Denver |
|---|---|---|
| Drives | 11.375 | 11.250 |
| Offensive plays | 59.94 | 62.75 |
| Pass attempts | 29.625 | 35.563 |
| Rush attempts | 29.000 | 25.688 |
| Neutral early-down run fraction | 53.3% | 49.3% |
| Points scored | 27.625 | 22.375 |
| Points allowed | 16.250 | 20.063 |
Football questions to investigate
Dobbins carries
Does Denver's changing play-calling lower total designed rushing opportunity, or does Dobbins retain ~57% share? Failure case for an Under: close script and normal late workload.
Emanuel Wilson usage
How much does Seattle's redistributed backfield and recent fumbling affect his leash? Failure case for an Over: reduced snaps, pass-heavy script, or alternate back usage.
Passing and total
Monitor Denver secondary health, Seattle's defensive injuries, short fields and explosive plays. Pressure alone does not justify passing-yards Unders.
What is missing for a usable price comparison?
Current player prop lines and odds · fully refreshed Week-6 QB/RB forecasts · exact-opponent Week-6 rushing ladder · confirmed late personnel · current weather.
Those gaps are displayed rather than guessed. The scanner still needs the automatic refresh-to-projection and reference-price integration.